The first section of this lecture will cover moving averages, some of its varieties, and how to use them to smooth and forecast a given time series. The process of eliminating seasonality and using the outcomes of the analysis to trend and seasonal component forecasting will be covered in more detail in the next section. In summary, we will address the following concepts:
- simple and weighted moving averages
- using moving averages to forecast and smooth time series data
- removing the seasonal component from a time series.
- using the deseasonal data to forecast trend.
- forecasting the trend and seasonal component.
- assessing the forecasting adequacy.
- Enseignant: mouhcene Hamrit